publications

2026

1. ReCIRC: Rectified Conformal Risk Control

   Helton Graziadei, Thiago Rodrigo Ramos, Rafael Izbicki, and 1 more author

   arXiv preprint arXiv:2609.38112, 2026

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2. Learning Conditional Expectation Operators via Functional Newton Updates

   Thiago Ramos, Alek Fröhlich, Daniel Perazzo, and 1 more author

   arXiv preprint arXiv:2609.35598, 2026

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3. Conformal Prediction via Transported Beta Laws

   Thiago R. Ramos, Helton Graziadei, and Luben M. C. Cabezas

   In Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, 02–04 sep 2026

   Awarded Abs HTML PDF

   Alexey Chervonenkis awards for Best Paper

   Split conformal prediction provides finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability, but this guarantee averages over the random calibration sample. We study instead the law of the calibration-conditional coverage induced by a realized conformal threshold. In the continuous i.i.d. setting this law is exactly Beta(k,n+1-k), so the usual marginal guarantee corresponds to its mean. We take this beta law as a finite-sample reference object and quantify departures from it using Wasserstein distances on [0,1]. The framework yields direct bounds on marginal coverage gaps and on bad-calibration probabilities, and separates different sources of non-i.i.d. behavior according to how they deform the beta reference: test-side shift acts through a transport map on the coverage scale, while calibration dependence changes the order-statistic law itself. We instantiate the framework in scale-shift, clustered, and stationary mixing settings, where the induced deformations can be characterized explicitly or through Berry–Esseen approximations. Simulations on dependent processes confirm that the first-order approximation tracks the empirical Wasserstein distance even at moderate sample sizes.

4. Drift-Aware Uncertainty Quantification via a Functional Spectral-Newton Method

   Thiago Ramos, Alek Fröhlich, Daniel Perazzo, and 1 more author

   In Catch, Adapt, and Operate: Monitoring ML Models Under Drift Workshop, 02–04 sep 2026

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5. LOCUS: A Distribution-Free Loss-Quantile Score for Risk-Aware Predictions

   Matheus Barreto, Mário Castro, Thiago R. Ramos, and 2 more authors

   02–04 sep 2026

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6. Conformal Calibration of Statistical Confidence Sets

   Luben Miguel Cruz Cabezas, Guilherme Soares, Thiago Ramos, and 2 more authors

   Transactions on Machine Learning Research, 02–04 sep 2026

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7. CP4SBI: Local Conformal Calibration of Credible Sets in Simulation-Based Inference

   Luben Miguel Cruz Cabezas, Vagner Silva Santos, Thiago Rodrigo Ramos, and 2 more authors

   Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Aug 2026

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8. LoBoost: Fast Model-Native Local Conformal Prediction for Gradient-Boosted Trees

   Vagner Santos, Victor Coscrato, Luben Cabezas, and 2 more authors

   arXiv preprint arXiv:2602.22432, Aug 2026

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9. Aprendizado de máquinas

   Thiago Rodrigo Ramos

   Aug 2026

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10. Quantifying oxide glass similarity through learned distances: a SHAP-based Earth Mover’s Distance

    Rafael Baságlia Rosante, Gustavo Laranja Thomaello, Thomaz Yeiden Busnardo Aguena, and 3 more authors

    Journal of Non-Crystalline Solids, Aug 2026

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2025

1. PersonalizedUS: Interpretable breast cancer risk assessment with local coverage uncertainty quantification

   Alek Fröhlich, Thiago Ramos, Gustavo Motta Cabello Dos Santos, and 3 more authors

   In Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Aug 2025

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2. Epistemic Uncertainty in Conformal Scores: A Unified Approach

   Luben Miguel Cruz Cabezas, Vagner Silva Santos, Thiago Ramos, and 1 more author

   In Proceedings of the Forty-first Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Aug 2025

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3. Modeling and Predicting Crimes in the City of São Paulo Using Graph Neural Networks

   Waqar Hassan, Marvin Mendes Cabral, Thiago Rodrigo Ramos, and 2 more authors

   In Intelligent Systems. BRACIS 2024, Aug 2025

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4. Simulação Estocástica

   Thiago Rodrigo Ramos

   Aug 2025

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5. From Patents to Dataset: Scraping for Oxide Glass Compositions and Properties

   Gustavo Laranja Thomaello, Thomaz Yeiden Busnardo Aguena, Eric Trevelato Costa, and 4 more authors

   arXiv preprint arXiv:2511.16366, Aug 2025

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6. Conformal Prediction for Compositional Data

   Lucas P. Amaral, Luben M. C. Cabezas, Thiago R. Ramos, and 1 more author

   Aug 2025

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2024

1. Split conformal prediction and non-exchangeable data

   Roberto I Oliveira, Paulo Orenstein, Thiago Ramos, and 1 more author

   Journal of Machine Learning Research, Aug 2024

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2. BlockBoost: Scalable and Efficient Blocking through Boosting

   Thiago Ramos, Rodrigo Loro Schuller, Alex Akira Okuno, and 3 more authors

   In International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, Aug 2024

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2023

1. AmnioML: amniotic fluid segmentation and volume prediction with uncertainty quantification

   Daniel Csillag, Lucas Monteiro Paes, Thiago Ramos, and 5 more authors

   In Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Aug 2023

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   Deployed Application Award

2022

1. ExactBoost: Directly Boosting the Margin in Combinatorial and Non-decomposable Metrics

   Daniel Csillag, Carolina Piazza, Thiago Ramos, and 3 more authors

   In International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, Aug 2022

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2018

1. Teoria ergódica em fluxos homogêneos e teoremas de Ratner

   Thiago Rodrigo Ramos

   Universidade de São Paulo, Aug 2018